– The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounts for over 70% of global cobalt supply, announced today a pivotal move to replace its eight-month export ban with a strict quota system, effective October 16. This decision is set to structurally tighten the market and propel a price rally that analysts believe could last for years.
The announcement from the DRC's Strategic Mineral Market Regulation and Control Agency (ARECOMS) ends months of market uncertainty. The initial ban, imposed in February to stem a price collapse, will be lifted on October 15. However, the replacement policy is anything but a return to free flow. ARECOMS unveiled a detailed quota schedule: 18,125 tons for the remainder of 2025, followed by an annual cap of 96,600 tons for both 2026 and 2027. This annual quota represents a drastic cut of more than 50% compared to the country's 2024 production levels.
Market response was immediate, with futures prices ticking upwards. "This isn't just a short-term fix; it's Congo declaring its intention to be the central bank of cobalt," said a metals analyst at a European bank. "By controlling the volume, they effectively set a price floor. The message to battery manufacturers is clear: secure your supply and expect higher costs."
The policy underscores a broader trend of resource nationalism in key mining countries. While the quota system aims to stabilize prices and boost government revenue, it forces the global electric vehicle (EV) and battery industries to accelerate diversification efforts. "The race for non-Congo cobalt, especially from Indonesia's nickel projects, and for battery chemistries that use less or no cobalt, just got a major boost," commented a supply chain consultant.
The coming weeks will see mining companies like CMOC, Glencore, and Eurasian Resources Group adjusting their strategies based on their allocated quotas. With the physical market expected to tighten significantly by Q1 2026, the DRC's quota decision marks the beginning of a new, more volatile, and expensive chapter for the global energy transition.